CMS: Analysis of House Bill Predicts Increase of $289B in Government Spending
A new CMS analysis released on Friday predicts that the House’s health care reform bill (HR 3962) would create a $289 billion increase in health care spending by 2019, The Hill reports (Hooper, The Hill, 11/14). But the report also noted that increased government spending would help create a projected $200 billion decrease in out-of-pocket health care expenses. It also found that under the bill, national spending on health care would grow by a little more than 1% over the next decade (Montgomery, Washington Post, 11/15). Unlike previous scores by the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, CMS’ nonpartisan analysis did not consider the bill’s tax provisions, which would help offset costs.
The 31-page report says that Medicare would be cut by “more than one-half trillion dollars ($571 billion), … possibly jeopardizing access to care for beneficiaries.” Those cuts could mean that small employers would be “inclined to terminate their existing coverage” (The Hill, 11/14). But the report also notes that the Medicare savings could help keep the program solvent for five additional years, meaning that it would not need additional cash infusions until 2022.
More than 30 million people would gain insurance coverage under the legislation and roughly three-fifths of the newly insured would be enrolled in an expanded Medicaid program, according to the report. But the nation’s health providers could face difficulties accommodating so many newly insured patients. The report says that some physicians, faced with growing demand for services, might charge higher fees or show preference to patients with better-paying insurance, thereby “exacerbating access problems” for Medicaid beneficiaries (Washington Post, 11/15).
Republicans requested the analysis from CMS Chief Actuary Richard Foster and hoped to receive the score before the House voted on the bill. According to The Hill, Republicans predicted that, had the report been ready prior to the vote, the legislation would not have been approved.
– Zach Swiss
Note: This is an abridged version of the story that appeared in American Health Line this morning. For complete access to the full version, plus all of AHL’s other stories and content, subscribe to AHL.
